San Diego St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#7
Expected Predictive Rating+20.5#4
Pace62.5#330
Improvement-4.2#323

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#14
First Shot+8.1#7
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#161
Layup/Dunks+1.5#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#37
Freethrows+1.5#68
Improvement-1.0#235

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#17
First Shot+7.5#9
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks+6.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#131
Freethrows+1.8#61
Improvement-3.2#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 44.3% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 88.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round92.3% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen61.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight36.6% n/a n/a
Final Four19.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game9.1% n/a n/a
National Champion4.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 03 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 14 - 1
Quad 27 - 011 - 1
Quad 38 - 119 - 2
Quad 410 - 029 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 291   Texas Southern W 77-42 98%     1 - 0 +24.5 -6.1 +28.9
  Nov 09, 2019 22   @ BYU W 76-71 47%     2 - 0 +21.6 +11.2 +10.5
  Nov 13, 2019 250   Grand Canyon W 86-61 98%     3 - 0 +16.7 +9.9 +8.1
  Nov 20, 2019 228   @ San Diego W 66-49 93%     4 - 0 +16.2 -2.1 +18.6
  Nov 22, 2019 274   LIU Brooklyn W 81-64 98%     5 - 0 +7.7 +0.9 +6.1
  Nov 25, 2019 262   Tennessee St. W 62-49 98%     6 - 0 +4.1 -10.7 +15.5
  Nov 28, 2019 8   Creighton W 83-52 52%     7 - 0 +46.4 +15.5 +31.3
  Nov 29, 2019 25   Iowa W 83-73 61%     8 - 0 +23.0 +15.5 +7.8
  Dec 04, 2019 101   @ Colorado St. W 79-57 77%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +30.0 +18.3 +14.5
  Dec 08, 2019 299   San Jose St. W 59-57 98%     10 - 0 2 - 0 -8.8 -10.9 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2019 105   Utah W 80-52 85%     11 - 0 +32.6 +12.6 +21.4
  Dec 28, 2019 317   Cal Poly W 73-57 99%     12 - 0 +3.7 -12.9 +15.1
  Jan 01, 2020 152   Fresno St. W 61-52 94%     13 - 0 3 - 0 +6.9 -8.9 +16.6
  Jan 04, 2020 42   @ Utah St. W 77-68 60%     14 - 0 4 - 0 +22.3 +13.4 +9.2
  Jan 08, 2020 227   @ Wyoming W 72-52 93%     15 - 0 5 - 0 +19.2 +11.5 +10.4
  Jan 11, 2020 77   Boise St. W 83-65 87%     16 - 0 6 - 0 +21.8 +14.2 +8.0
  Jan 14, 2020 152   @ Fresno St. W 64-55 86%     17 - 0 7 - 0 +13.0 -0.5 +14.5
  Jan 18, 2020 80   Nevada W 68-55 87%     18 - 0 8 - 0 +16.6 -2.7 +19.7
  Jan 21, 2020 227   Wyoming W 72-55 97%     19 - 0 9 - 0 +10.2 +13.4 +0.2
  Jan 26, 2020 97   @ UNLV W 71-67 77%     20 - 0 10 - 0 +12.2 +7.4 +5.1
  Jan 29, 2020 139   @ New Mexico W 85-57 85%     21 - 0 11 - 0 +32.9 +20.3 +14.8
  Feb 01, 2020 42   Utah St. W 80-68 79%     22 - 0 12 - 0 +19.3 +19.9 +0.8
  Feb 08, 2020 191   @ Air Force W 89-74 91%     23 - 0 13 - 0 +16.4 +20.5 -2.8
  Feb 11, 2020 139   New Mexico W 82-59 93%     24 - 0 14 - 0 +21.9 +6.9 +14.8
  Feb 16, 2020 77   @ Boise St. W 72-55 72%     25 - 0 15 - 0 +26.8 +16.7 +13.0
  Feb 22, 2020 97   UNLV L 63-66 89%     25 - 1 15 - 1 -0.8 -6.8 +5.8
  Feb 25, 2020 101   Colorado St. W 66-60 90%     26 - 1 16 - 1 +7.9 -5.9 +14.0
  Feb 29, 2020 80   @ Nevada W 83-76 73%     27 - 1 17 - 1 +16.6 +14.1 +2.6
  Mar 05, 2020 191   Air Force W 73-60 94%     28 - 1 +11.4 +3.8 +9.1
  Mar 06, 2020 77   Boise St. W 81-68 80%     29 - 1 +19.8 +23.2 -1.6
  Mar 07, 2020 42   Utah St. L 56-59 70%     29 - 2 +7.3 -3.1 +10.0
Projected Record 29 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.7 44.3 43.7 10.7 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 44.3 43.7 10.7 1.3 0.0 100.0%